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ISSN 2063-5346
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A STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC MODELING FOR COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN INDIA

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R. Sasikumar1*, P. Arriyamuthu2
» doi: 10.48047/ecb/2023.12.si10.0017

Abstract

Objectives: The Second wave of Covid-19 has been affecting all over the world drastically, especially in India. The main objectives of this paper are illustrated as high incidence states of Basic and Time-depended reproduction number for COVID-19 in India as well as study the dynamic evaluation of pandemic. Study design: Our study is about the dynamic evaluation of pandemic. Also, characterization and comparison between first and second wave of COVID-19 are explored and vaccination coverage are estimated through a basic reproduction number. Finally, we discussed about the endemic model of COVID-19 outbreak. Methods: we adapted a simple stochastic epidemic model, attack rate method for basic reproduction number, Time dependent method used for computing the effective reproduction numbers, fit the Exponential regression model on pandemic waves and some mathematical concepts are also presented.

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