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ISSN 2063-5346
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EVALUATION OF THE NEXUS BETWEEN OIL PRODUCTION AND ITS OVERALL EFFECT ON EXCHANGE RATE, INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

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Okafor Tochukwu, Chizea John, Godswill Osuma
» doi: 10.31838/ecb/2023.12.s3.559

Abstract

The negative impact of oil theft has created a rippling effect as it crosses over into other sectors of the Nigerian economy. This paper aims at identifying the relationship between the level of oil production and its overall effect on exchange rate, inflation and economic growth. The reason for this study is the recent problems of oil production coinciding with the fluctuating exchange rate, high inflation and almost nonexistent economic growth within the country. Pooled regression analysis was adopted for this study with the result of the Hausman test recommending the random effect model as the most appropriate. Data was obtained from the central bank of Nigeria, and Nigeria bureau of statistics for ten years spanning from 2012 to 2021. The study found that exchange rate (ER) and oil production price (OP) are statistically significant with economic growth while inflation (INF) was insignificant with economic growth. Therefore, this study recommends diversifying the economy from its reliance on crude oil production to agricultural production and other real sector engagements involving industralisation would enhance the economic growth in the country.

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