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ISSN 2063-5346
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STATISTICAL MODELLING FOR PREDICTING MULTI-MORBIDITY AMONG ELDERLY POPULATION IN KERALA

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Reshma Santhosh, Dr. S.V.Kakade, Dr. P.M.Durgawale
» doi: 10.31838/ecb/2023.12.6.25

Abstract

Context/Background: General improvement in healthcare facilities over the years is one of the main reasons for the continuing increase in the proportion of elders. Increased life expectancy will lead to multi-morbidity that affects most of the individuals in the productive age group as well as those who are aged. Aims/Objectives: To determine the prevalence and predictors of multi-morbidity among elderly population in Kerala with its variation among socio-demographic spectrum and health behaviours. Methodology: Elderly Population aged > 60 years was used to examine multi-morbidity and its associated risk factors. Statistical Analysis: Chi-square test and Binary logistic regression analysis were employed to find the association and also to identify the risk factors of developing multi-morbidity. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve Analysis was carried out to detect the cut-off probability giving an equalized classification of multi-morbidity and non-multi-morbidity for the Logistic Regression Model. Results: The prevalence of multi-morbidity in Kerala was found to be 51%. The major risk factors causing multi-morbidity among elderly in Kerala were gender, religion, caste etc. Conclusions: Prediction percentages in Kerala revealed a greater risk of multi-morbidity which was more among the vulnerable groups of the population. Later Years of life should be protected, promoted and prolonged.

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